A neighbourhood Output Area Classification from the 2021 and 2022 UK censuses
Jakub Wyszomierski; Paul A. Longley; Alex D. Singleton; Christopher Gale; Oliver O’Brien (2024). The Geographical Journal, 190(2). DOI: 10.1111/geoj.12550
Abstract
UK‐wide multivariate neighbourhood classifications have been built using small area population data following every census since 1971, and have been built using Output Area geographies since 2001. Policy makers in both the public and private sectors find such taxonomies, typically arranged into hierarchies of Supergroups, Groups and Subgroups, useful across a wide range of applications in business and service planning. Recent and forthcoming releases of small area census statistics pose new methodological challenges. For example, the 2022 Scottish Census was carried out a year after those in other UK nations, and some of the variables now collected across different jurisdictions do not bear direct comparison with one another. Here we develop a methodology to accommodate these issues alongside the more established procedures of variable selection, standardisation, transformation, class definition and labelling.
Extended Summary
This research develops a new methodology for creating neighbourhood classifications from UK census data following the unprecedented challenges of the 2021/2022 census period. Geodemographic classifications group similar neighbourhoods together based on demographic, social, and economic characteristics, providing essential tools for policy makers and service planners to understand local population patterns. The COVID-19 pandemic created unique methodological challenges: Scotland delayed its census until 2022, Northern Ireland released only aggregate data initially, and pandemic conditions affected normal patterns of work, residence, and student populations. The study uses k-means clustering analysis on 60 carefully selected census variables covering demographics, ethnicity, housing, employment, and social characteristics. For England and Wales, the research uses observed 2021 census data at the Output Area level. For Scotland and Northern Ireland, where detailed small-area data were not yet available, the methodology employs 2011 census data as place-markers, adjusted for expected demographic changes like population ageing. The classification employs hierarchical clustering to create eight Supergroups, which are further subdivided into 21 Groups and 52 Subgroups. The resulting 2021/2022 Output Area Classification reveals significant changes in British neighbourhood structure compared to 2011. Key findings include sharper definition of urban centres, with the ‘Multicultural and Educated Urbanites’ category now more concentrated in city and town centres. The classification identifies greater differentiation within both urban and suburban areas, reflecting the diffusion of ethnic minorities beyond major conurbations and into smaller towns across Britain. A new ‘Retired Professionals’ supergroup emerges, highlighting labour force participation in an ageing society. The research also documents the blurring of traditional urban-rural divides, with several supergroups now present across both metropolitan and rural areas. Methodologically, this work demonstrates how geodemographic classifications can accommodate asynchronous data collection and phased data release whilst maintaining UK-wide coverage. The classification provides place-markers for Scottish and Northern Irish neighbourhoods that can be updated when complete census data becomes available. This approach ensures timely release of results whilst maintaining the ability to incorporate additional data. The findings have significant implications for public policy and service delivery, offering updated insights into neighbourhood inequality, demographic change, and social segregation patterns across Britain. The classification supports resource allocation decisions in health, education, housing, and social services by providing contemporary snapshots of local population characteristics in the post-pandemic context.
Key Findings
- New methodology successfully accommodates asynchronous UK census data collection using place-markers for incomplete Scottish and Northern Irish data.
- Classification identifies sharper urban centre definition with multicultural educated populations increasingly concentrated in city and town centres.
- Traditional urban-rural divides are blurring, with ethnic minorities now diffused across smaller towns rather than concentrated in major conurbations.
- Emergence of distinct ‘Retired Professionals’ supergroup reflects changing labour force participation patterns in an ageing British society.
- Greater neighbourhood differentiation observed within both urban and suburban areas compared to previous 2011 classification system.
Citation
@article{wyszomierski2024neighbourhood,
author = {Jakub Wyszomierski; Paul A. Longley; Alex D. Singleton; Christopher Gale; Oliver O'Brien},
title = {A neighbourhood Output Area Classification from the 2021 and 2022 UK censuses},
journal = {The Geographical Journal},
year = {2024},
volume = {190(2)},
doi = {10.1111/geoj.12550}
}