A regional exploration of retail visits during the COVID-19 pandemic
Patrick Ballantyne; Alex Singleton; Les Dolega (2021). Regional Studies, Regional Science, 8(1), 366-370. DOI: 10.1080/21681376.2021.1973548
Abstract
Despite evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic has precipitated significant regional (economic) inequalities, there is a substantial lack of regional insight into the impacts of COVID-19 on the retail sector. In this study, using data from SafeGraph, we adopt a regional approach to explore how visits to retail places changed during the early weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Chicago Metropolitan area. In particular, we highlight that retail visits exhibited interesting spatio-temporal and structural trends.
Extended Summary
This research examines how retail visits changed across different areas and retail types during the early weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Chicago Metropolitan area. Using mobility data from SafeGraph, which tracks anonymised phone users’ GPS locations, the study analysed retail visits from March 2 to April 6, 2020, covering the period when stay-at-home orders were implemented. The research employed hexagonal grid mapping to visualise spatial patterns and categorised retail establishments into four types: comparison retail (clothing, furniture, electronics), convenience retail (grocery stores, petrol stations), leisure retail (restaurants, entertainment venues), and service retail (automotive repair, personal care services). The study found pronounced spatial inequalities in how retail visits declined during the pandemic. The vast majority of retail visits were concentrated in Chicago’s central business district (CBD), with smaller concentrations in satellite cities like Joliet and established retail developments such as Woodfield Mall. Temporally, retail visits decreased dramatically, with the most significant decline occurring during the week of March 16, 2020, when Illinois implemented its stay-at-home order. Particularly noteworthy was the finding that suburban and rural areas of Chicago appeared to experience greater contractions in retail visits compared to the CBD, suggesting differential regional impacts of pandemic restrictions. When examining retail types, convenience retail saw a substantial and sustained increase in visit proportions, rising from 28% to 35% following the stay-at-home order. This increase likely reflected increased demand for essential goods characteristic of the early pandemic period. Conversely, leisure retail experienced a significant and sustained decline in visits of 8%, reflecting the severe impact on entertainment and hospitality sectors during lockdown measures. The research demonstrates the utility of mobility datasets and hexagonal grid systems (H3) for analysing retail trends while protecting individual store-level data. The findings have significant implications for retail planning and post-pandemic economic recovery strategies. Understanding these regional variations could help identify underperforming neighbourhoods and retail sectors that might benefit from targeted support measures, similar to the UK’s ‘Eat Out to Help Out’ scheme. The study calls for further research to quantify the role of geographical context and retail type in explaining these regional trends, particularly through modelling that considers factors such as urban versus rural locations and local COVID-19 infection rates.
Key Findings
- Retail visits in Chicago declined dramatically during early COVID-19, with the steepest drop occurring during the March 16 stay-at-home order week.
- Suburban and rural areas experienced greater contractions in retail visits compared to Chicago’s central business district during the pandemic.
- Convenience retail visits increased from 28% to 35% of total visits following lockdown measures, reflecting increased demand for essential goods.
- Leisure retail suffered an 8% sustained decline in visit proportions, demonstrating the severe impact on entertainment and hospitality sectors.
- Retail visits showed pronounced spatial concentration in Chicago’s CBD and established retail centres like Woodfield Mall and satellite cities.
Citation
@article{ballantyne2021regional,
author = {Patrick Ballantyne; Alex Singleton; Les Dolega},
title = {A regional exploration of retail visits during the COVID-19 pandemic},
journal = {Regional Studies, Regional Science},
year = {2021},
volume = {8(1)},
pages = {366-370},
doi = {10.1080/21681376.2021.1973548}
}