Measuring the spatial vulnerability of retail centres to online consumption through a framework of e-resilience
A.D. Singleton; L. Dolega; D. Riddlesden; P.A. Longley (2016). Geoforum, 69, 5-18. DOI: 10.1016/j.geoforum.2015.11.013
Abstract
This paper presents e-resilience as a framework for assessing the extent to which retail centres have spatially differentiated vulnerability to the impacts of online consumption. This extends the conceptual model of resilience as applied to retail, and is operationalised through a novel methodology that develops two indices that balance both supply and demand influences. We describe the creation of a composite e-resilience indicator, and then calculate it for retail centres across England. Our findings suggest a geographic polarising effect, with least vulnerable centres identified as large and more attractive or as smaller local destinations with a focus on convenience shopping. Mid-sized centres were typically shown to be the most exposed, and are argued as having a less clearly defined function in contemporary retail. Such findings have wide policy relevance to stakeholders of retail interested in the future configuration of sustainable and resilient provision.
Extended Summary
This research examines which retail centres across England are most vulnerable to the growing impact of online shopping through the development of a new e-resilience framework. The study addresses the critical question of how traditional high streets and retail centres can adapt to the rapidly expanding digital retail landscape, where online sales have tripled over eight years and are forecast to reach 15.2% of all UK retail sales. The methodology combines supply and demand factors using two comprehensive indices. For demand analysis, the research develops the Internet User Classification (IUC), a specialised geodemographic system that categorises areas based on residents’ internet usage patterns, demographics, and digital infrastructure. This classification uses data from the Oxford Internet Survey, census information, and broadband speed measurements across 32,844 Lower Layer Super Output Areas in England. The supply vulnerability index examines retail centre composition, measuring factors like the presence of anchor stores and leisure facilities (which enhance resilience) against ‘digitalisation retail’ categories such as bookshops, music stores, and electronics retailers that are particularly susceptible to online competition. The research then models catchment areas for retail centres using a Huff model to determine which populations each centre serves. The findings reveal a striking geographical polarisation in retail vulnerability. Large, attractive retail centres in major urban areas demonstrate the highest e-resilience, alongside smaller local centres focused on convenience shopping. These locations benefit from either superior retail offerings that encourage longer visits and experiential shopping, or from serving immediate daily needs that are less suitable for online purchase. Conversely, mid-sized secondary retail centres, often located in suburban and rural areas of South East England, show the greatest vulnerability to online competition. These centres, sometimes referred to as ‘Clone Towns’, face particular challenges as they lack both the drawing power of major destinations and the convenience function of local centres. The research suggests these mid-sized centres have become less clearly defined in their retail function within the contemporary landscape. The e-resilience framework provides valuable insights for retail policy and planning decisions. It offers stakeholders including local authorities, town centre managers, and retailers a quantitative tool for assessing vulnerability and identifying centres that may require intervention or support. The findings have significant implications for understanding the future configuration of sustainable retail provision across England.
Key Findings
- Large attractive retail centres and small local convenience-focused centres demonstrate the highest e-resilience to online shopping impacts.
- Mid-sized secondary retail centres show greatest vulnerability, particularly in suburban and rural South East England areas.
- The research develops a novel Internet User Classification system identifying eleven distinct groups based on digital engagement patterns.
- Geographic polarisation reveals that retail centres in rural areas face higher exposure due to populations’ greater online shopping propensity.
- The e-resilience framework provides stakeholders with quantitative tools for assessing retail centre vulnerability and planning interventions.
Citation
@article{singleton2016measuring,
author = {A.D. Singleton; L. Dolega; D. Riddlesden; P.A. Longley},
title = {Measuring the spatial vulnerability of retail centres to online consumption through a framework of e-resilience},
journal = {Geoforum},
year = {2016},
volume = {69},
pages = {5-18},
doi = {10.1016/j.geoforum.2015.11.013}
}