Nonlinear relationships between human development and international student mobility: The prominent role of employment prospects and cultural and linguistic ties
Ruth Neville; Francisco Rowe; Alexander Singleton (2024). Population, Space and Place, 30(5). DOI: 10.1002/psp.2764
Abstract
Higher education is a key global market and considerable literature has focused on investigating the determinants of international student mobility (ISM). However, less is known about the extent to which the relative influence of these factors is moderated by local conditions and vary across origin countries. Drawing on a unique data set of undergraduate applications from the UK Colleges and Admissions Service, we analyse variations in the contextual determinants of ISM flows to the United Kingdom across countries of origin over a 10‐year period (2009–2019). We run a suite of negative binomial gravity models to understand the key influences of ISM and uncover the spatial heterogeneity of these influences. Our findings reveal a nonlinear relationship between the level of development of origin countries and ISM flows. Although countries from higher development levels are more likely to send students to the United Kingdom, there appears to be a dip in applications at the mid‐levels of development. Given the nonlinearity of this relationship, we seek to understand how countries across different levels of development respond to the typical factors that are seen to influence flows of international students. We also see substantial heterogeneity of the influence of different factors for origin countries, with some countries being influenced by employment opportunities and others by cultural and linguistic ties. However, this variation is not necessarily determined by the countries’ level of development. Our findings have implications for policy makers, educators and researchers seeking to navigate and influence global student mobility trends. Our study highlights the need for tailored strategies to attract and retain international students from specific origin countries, recognising the multifaceted nature of ISM determinants.
Extended Summary
This research examines how different factors influence international student flows to the United Kingdom, revealing significant variations across countries of origin. Using a comprehensive dataset from the UK Colleges and Admissions Service covering undergraduate applications from 157 countries between 2009 and 2019, the study employed negative binomial gravity models to analyse international student mobility patterns. The research demonstrates a nonlinear relationship between human development levels and student flows to the UK. Whilst highly developed countries send more students overall, there is a notable dip in applications from countries at mid-development levels, suggesting unique barriers or opportunities that affect different nations differently. The study identifies key factors that consistently influence international student mobility across all countries, including EU membership status, colonial relationships, diaspora communities already in the UK, GDP per capita, and shared language connections. However, the research reveals substantial heterogeneity in how these factors operate across different origin countries. Some nations are primarily driven by employment prospects and economic opportunities, whilst others respond more strongly to cultural and linguistic ties with the United Kingdom. Importantly, these variations do not follow predictable patterns based solely on development levels. For instance, India shows weaker responses to colonial ties and common language connections compared to other former colonies, but demonstrates stronger sensitivity to unemployment rates and economic factors. Conversely, Hong Kong exhibits greater influence from diaspora networks and cultural connections whilst being less affected by distance and economic variables. The findings challenge assumptions that international student mobility follows uniform patterns across all countries. Instead, each nation exhibits unique combinations of motivating factors that influence student decisions to study abroad. This complexity suggests that traditional ‘push-pull’ migration theories, whilst useful, may oversimplify the nuanced relationships between different determinants of international student flows. The research has significant implications for higher education policy and international recruitment strategies. Universities and governments seeking to attract international students need tailored approaches that recognise the specific factors that motivate students from different countries. Rather than applying universal strategies, successful international recruitment requires understanding the unique cultural, economic, and historical contexts that shape student mobility from each origin nation. This work contributes to migration studies, higher education research, and international development literature by providing empirical evidence of the heterogeneous nature of international student mobility determinants across different national contexts.
Key Findings
- International student flows to the UK follow a nonlinear relationship with origin country development levels, with fewer applications from mid-development nations.
- EU membership, colonial relationships, diaspora communities, and shared language consistently influence student mobility across most origin countries.
- India responds more strongly to employment opportunities whilst Hong Kong is more influenced by cultural and linguistic ties with Britain.
- Country-specific factors matter more than development level in determining which influences drive international student mobility patterns.
- Successful international student recruitment requires tailored strategies recognising unique motivational factors for each origin country rather than universal approaches.
Citation
@article{neville2024nonlinear,
author = {Ruth Neville; Francisco Rowe; Alexander Singleton},
title = {Nonlinear relationships between human development and international student mobility: The prominent role of employment prospects and cultural and linguistic ties},
journal = {Population, Space and Place},
year = {2024},
volume = {30(5)},
doi = {10.1002/psp.2764}
}