Predicting students’ academic performance based on school and socio-demographic characteristics
Tamara Thiele; Alexander Singleton; Daniel Pope; Debbi Stanistreet (2016). Studies in Higher Education, 41(8), 1424-1446. DOI: 10.1080/03075079.2014.974528
Abstract
Students’ trajectories into university are often uniquely dependent on school qualifications though these alone are limited as predictors of academic potential. This study endorses this, examining associations between school grades, school type, school performance, socio-economic deprivation, neighbourhood participation, sex and academic achievement at a British university. Consistent with past research, large entry-level differences between students are generally narrowed by final year at university. Students from the most deprived areas performed less well than more affluent students. Asian and black students performed less well than white students. Female students performed better than their male counterparts. Contrasting with past research, though school performance was positively associated with entry grades, students from low-performing schools were more likely to achieve the highest degree classifications. Additionally, independent school students performed less well than comprehensive school students at final year despite entering with higher grades. These variations exemplify how patterns observed nationally may differ between universities.
Extended Summary
This research examines whether school qualifications alone adequately predict academic potential by analysing the relationship between contextual background characteristics and university performance at a British Russell Group institution. The study analysed data from 5,369 students who entered three-year degree programmes between 2004/2005 and 2009/2010, tracking their academic performance from entry through graduation. Multiple measures of disadvantage were examined, including the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), POLAR 3 neighbourhood participation data, school type and performance indicators, alongside demographic characteristics such as sex and ethnicity. The research employed both univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses to examine associations between these contextual factors and degree outcomes, defined as achieving either first-class or upper-second-class classifications versus lower grades. The findings reveal significant disparities in university performance based on students’ backgrounds, even after controlling for entry qualifications. Students from the most deprived areas were less likely to achieve good degrees compared to those from affluent areas, though this effect was only statistically significant between the most and least deprived quintiles. Gender differences proved particularly pronounced, with female students 50% more likely than males to achieve good degrees. Ethnic minorities, particularly Asian and black students, were significantly less likely to achieve good degrees compared to white students, with both groups approximately 50% less likely to succeed. Most notably, the study found evidence supporting contextualised admissions policies. Students from comprehensive schools outperformed those from independent schools at graduation, despite entering with lower qualifications. Similarly, students from low-performing schools were more likely to achieve the highest degree classifications than those from high-performing schools, suggesting that school grades may not fully reflect academic potential for students from disadvantaged backgrounds. These findings challenge the predominant reliance on school qualifications in university admissions processes. The research supports implementing contextual data alongside academic grades to identify students whose prior attainment may not reflect their true academic potential. This is particularly relevant given increasing tuition fees and government pressure on higher education institutions to widen participation whilst maintaining academic standards. The study demonstrates that entry-level differences between student groups largely narrow by final year, suggesting that contextualised admissions policies could promote equity without compromising academic excellence. These findings have important implications for widening participation policies and fair access initiatives in British higher education.
Key Findings
- Independent school students performed worse than comprehensive school students at university despite entering with higher qualifications.
- Students from low-performing schools were more likely to achieve highest degree classifications than those from high-performing schools.
- Female students were 50% more likely than males to achieve good degrees (first or upper-second class).
- Asian and black students were approximately 50% less likely to achieve good degrees compared to white students.
- Entry-level performance differences between student groups largely narrowed by final year, supporting contextualised admissions policies.
Citation
@article{thiele2016predicting,
author = {Tamara Thiele; Alexander Singleton; Daniel Pope; Debbi Stanistreet},
title = {Predicting students' academic performance based on school and socio-demographic characteristics},
journal = {Studies in Higher Education},
year = {2016},
volume = {41(8)},
pages = {1424-1446},
doi = {10.1080/03075079.2014.974528}
}