Reconfiguration and economic performance of British retail centres in the post-pandemic era
Les Dolega; Patrick Ballantyne; Alex Singleton (2026). The International Review of Retail, Distribution and Consumer Research, 1-39. DOI: 10.1080/09593969.2026.2613904
Abstract
The UK retail landscape has undergone a profound change in past decades with popular debates largely focusing on decline of the traditional retail spaces. This, predominantly driven by technological advancement and corresponding changes in consumer behaviour, was exacerbated by the Covid-19 pandemic and the subsequent disruption to supply chains and cost of living crisis. This study provides a comprehensive, data-driven descriptive analysis and new evidence on the transformation and economic performance of British retail centres over the five-year pre- and post-pandemic period (2019–2023), which is a crucial period offering a valuable perspective within three different periods: prepandemic, the Covid-19 pandemic and the initial post-pandemic ‘recovery’. Using longitudinal retailer occupancy data, this study presents a picture of the British retail landscape that is far from uniform, and shows that the decline was predominantly driven by ongoing trends of digitalisation within retailing and services and exacerbated by the temporary closure of ‘non-essential’ shops during the pandemic. Our findings also provide empirical evidence that Covid-19, when combined with pre-existing trends, prompted further demise of many ‘traditional’ retailers on high streets, evidenced by increasing vacancies. On the contrary and importantly, we find several trends which are facilitating reorientation and growth in the traditional retail centres and have emerged in the past five years. These changes are conceptualised within existing frameworks of retail resilience to economic shocks in particular retail centres economic cycle and their evolutionary trajectories. The new evidence can be used to substantiate the wider debates on the economic performance of British retail centres and their regeneration in the ‘new retail’ post Covid-19 era.
Extended Summary
This research examines how British retail centres transformed during the critical period from 2019 to 2023, encompassing pre-pandemic, pandemic, and initial recovery phases. The study utilised longitudinal retailer occupancy data from the Local Data Company, covering approximately 370,000 retail units across 4,811 official retail centre boundaries throughout Great Britain. This comprehensive dataset enabled detailed analysis of changing shop compositions, vacancy rates, and economic performance across different spatial scales and retail centre hierarchies. The research reveals a complex picture of retail transformation that extends far beyond simple decline narratives. Vacancy rates increased substantially by 18.9% over the five-year period, with the most dramatic surge occurring during the Covid-19 pandemic when rates jumped by 25.4%. However, this overall decline masks significant variation across different retail categories and geographical areas. Fashion retailers experienced the steepest decline, losing 21% of units, whilst non-food shops and financial services also contracted significantly. Banks were particularly affected, with over 31% of branches closing between 2019 and 2023, reflecting accelerated digitalisation of financial services. Conversely, several sectors demonstrated remarkable resilience and growth. Convenience retail, leisure establishments, and health and beauty services expanded substantially, with cafes, restaurants, and bars opening almost 7,000 new venues. The research identified emerging dietary trends, with substantial increases in Greek, Korean, Japanese, and Vietnamese restaurants, alongside rapid growth in vegan establishments. These findings challenge simplistic ‘death of the high street’ narratives by revealing ongoing adaptation and reorientation. The study categorised local authority districts into four performance trajectories using an adaptive cycle framework: growth, consolidation, release, and reorientation. Only 15% of retail systems demonstrated resilience, whilst 85% showed signs of structural weakness. Smaller neighbourhood centres proved more resilient than major regional shopping destinations, benefiting from hybrid working patterns and the rise of ‘15-minute city’ concepts. The research contributes crucial empirical evidence to debates about retail centre evolution and adaptive resilience. These findings have significant policy implications, suggesting that successful regeneration strategies must recognise the diverse trajectories of different retail centres rather than applying uniform approaches. The work supports targeted interventions that embrace functional diversification whilst strengthening the experiential and convenience-oriented services that are driving contemporary retail reorientation.
Key Findings
- Vacancy rates in British retail centres increased by 18.9% between 2019-2023, with pandemic driving record 25.4% surge
- Fashion retailers declined most severely with 21% unit loss, whilst convenience retail and leisure sectors expanded substantially
- Over 31% of bank branches closed during study period, reflecting accelerated digitalisation of financial services
- Smaller neighbourhood centres demonstrated greater resilience than major regional shopping destinations during pandemic recovery
- 85% of local authority retail systems showed structural weakness, with only 15% displaying growth or successful reorientation trajectories
Citation
@article{dolega2026reconfiguration,
author = {Les Dolega; Patrick Ballantyne; Alex Singleton},
title = {Reconfiguration and economic performance of British retail centres in the post-pandemic era},
journal = {The International Review of Retail, Distribution and Consumer Research},
year = {2026},
pages = {1-39},
doi = {10.1080/09593969.2026.2613904}
}