Spatial-Temporal Dynamics of Gas Consumption in England and Wales: Assessing the Residential Sector Using Sequence Analysis
Cameron Ward; Caitlin Robinson; Alexander Singleton; Francisco Rowe (2024). Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy, 17(3), 1273-1300. DOI: 10.1007/s12061-024-09584-9
Abstract
The UK residential sector is energy inefficient and has an overwhelming reliance on natural gas as a heating source. For the UK to meet its 2050 net zero obligations, the sector will need to go through a process of decarbonisation. Previous studies acknowledge the spatial disparities of household energy consumption, but have neglected how consumption varies over time. This paper advances such shortcomings via a sequence and clustering analysis to identify common gas consumption trajectories within neighbourhoods in England and Wales between 2010 and 2020. Four clusters are identified: “Very High to High Consumption”; “High to Medium Consumption”; “Medium to Low Consumption” and “Low to Very Low Consumption”. The clusters were contextualised using spatial datasets representing the socio-economic and built environment. Across all clusters, the proportion of energy inefficient dwellings were high, but there was a trend of high consumption associated with lower proportions of energy efficient dwellings. The results provide useful insight to policy makers and practitioners about where best to target electrification and retrofitting measures to facilitate a cleaner and more equitable residential sector. Policy targeting of areas with continual high gas consumption will accelerate the decarbonisation process, whilst targeting areas who continually under consume will likely enhance household health and well-being.
Extended Summary
This research examines how residential gas consumption patterns have evolved across English and Welsh neighbourhoods between 2010 and 2020 to inform targeted decarbonisation strategies. The study addresses a critical gap in understanding the temporal dynamics of household energy use, which previous research has overlooked despite recognising significant spatial disparities in consumption patterns. The research employed sequence and clustering analysis using weather-corrected median gas consumption data from 7,156 Middle Super Output Areas (MSOAs), each containing 2,000-6,000 households. This methodological approach tracked consumption trajectories over the decade-long period, identifying areas with similar patterns of change. The analysis was contextualised using socioeconomic datasets, household income estimates, and Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) data to understand the drivers behind different consumption patterns. Four distinct clusters emerged from the analysis: “Very High to High Consumption” (545 MSOAs), “High to Medium Consumption” (1,000 MSOAs), “Medium to Low Consumption” (3,832 MSOAs), and “Low to Very Low Consumption” (1,779 MSOAs). Overall, gas consumption per metre decreased across the analysis period, attributed to improved energy efficiency measures, smart metre installations, and enhanced economic vulnerabilities following the 2008 financial crisis. However, significant inequalities persist across different groups and geographical areas. The “Very High to High Consumption” cluster showed the lowest proportion of energy-efficient dwellings (EPC bands A-C) but had the highest median household incomes at £43,850 annually. These areas face estimated annual gas bills 50% higher than the lowest consumption cluster. Conversely, the “Low to Very Low Consumption” cluster had the lowest median incomes and over 50% of properties in inefficient EPC bands D-G, suggesting fuel poverty where households deliberately under-consume due to financial constraints. Spatial analysis revealed lower gas consumption clusters concentrated in urban centres, primarily due to smaller property sizes in purpose-built flats (58m² average) compared to detached rural properties (149m²). However, regional variations exist, particularly in North Wales where larger properties show lower consumption due to high fuel poverty rates, and Southwest England where second homes reduce year-round consumption. The research identifies 19 MSOAs with consistently high consumption (affecting 141,550 people) and 43 MSOAs with persistently low consumption (444,416 people) as priority areas for targeted interventions. Policy recommendations focus on energy-saving retrofits and electrification measures for high-consumption areas to achieve meaningful carbon reduction, whilst low-consumption areas require support to address fuel poverty and improve household health and wellbeing. This work provides crucial evidence for developing spatially-targeted policies that can simultaneously advance decarbonisation goals and address energy equity concerns in the transition to net-zero emissions.
Key Findings
- Four distinct gas consumption clusters identified across England and Wales, showing persistent inequalities in residential energy use patterns.
- Overall gas consumption decreased 2010-2020, but 62 MSOAs showed no improvement, affecting over 585,000 residents requiring targeted intervention.
- High-consumption areas have lowest energy-efficient dwelling proportions but highest incomes, whilst low-consumption areas face fuel poverty.
- Urban centres show lower consumption due to smaller property sizes, though regional variations exist in North Wales and Southwest England.
- Targeted retrofitting and electrification policies could simultaneously advance decarbonisation and address energy equity in identified priority areas.
Citation
@article{ward2024spatialtemporal,
author = {Cameron Ward; Caitlin Robinson; Alexander Singleton; Francisco Rowe},
title = {Spatial-Temporal Dynamics of Gas Consumption in England and Wales: Assessing the Residential Sector Using Sequence Analysis},
journal = {Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy},
year = {2024},
volume = {17(3)},
pages = {1273-1300},
doi = {10.1007/s12061-024-09584-9}
}