Thriving or surviving: Understanding the geography of financial precarity in Great Britain
Zi Ye; Alex Singleton (2026). Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 125, 102399. DOI: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2026.102399
Abstract
Financial precarity, the state of economic insecurity characterised by unpredictable employment and declining social protection significantly impacts cognitive functioning, emotional stability and social inclusion. This condition stems from multiple interconnected factors: poor quality and unpredictable work, unmanaged debt, insecure asset wealth and insufficient financial resource. Despite extensive research on financial precarity’s individual impacts, its geographical distribution and associated social-spatial inequalities remain poorly understood. This paper addresses this gap by introducing a new geodemographic classification of financial precarity across Great Britain. Our classification system uses small-area measurements encompassing employment patterns, income levels, asset holdings, debt obligations, and lifestyle characteristics at the neighbourhood level. By mapping financial precarity at a fine spatial scale, this research reveals how economic vulnerability varies across different localities, highlighting the uneven geography of financial insecurity between rural and urban areas, city centres and peripheries, coastal and inland communities, and how the classification groups are interwoven to the variegated patterns in and around major urban areas. This small-area approach provides sufficient detail to identify spatial patterns while enabling comparisons between local areas, offering new insights into the geographic dimensions of economic precarity in contemporary Britain.
Extended Summary
This research addresses how financial precarity—the state of economic insecurity caused by unpredictable work and declining social protection—varies geographically across Great Britain through the first national mapping exercise of its kind. The study develops a comprehensive geodemographic classification system that moves beyond traditional labour-focused definitions to capture the broader socioeconomic and spatial drivers of financial vulnerability at the neighbourhood level. The research methodology integrates multiple data sources including the 2021/2022 Census, Department for Work and Pensions benefit statistics, Financial Conduct Authority records, and consumer lifestyle surveys. Small area estimation techniques were employed to derive measures for gambling behaviour and savings patterns using spatial microsimulation models. The analysis covers 43,064 Lower Super Output Areas in England and Wales and Data Zones in Scotland, examining 67 variables across five key domains: employment patterns, income and benefits, household assets, financial liabilities, and resident lifestyles. After correlation analysis to reduce multicollinearity, K-means clustering was applied to 39 variables to create a hierarchical classification system. The research produces a two-tier Financial Precarity Classification comprising five Supergroups and thirteen nested Groups. The findings reveal that 15.8% of neighbourhoods fall into the most financially vulnerable category (Highly Vulnerable Families), predominantly located in peripheral zones of major cities like London, Manchester, Birmingham and Liverpool. These areas are characterised by high unemployment, outstanding debts, overcrowded social housing, and lone-parent households. Another 23.6% of areas are classified as Financially Precarious Families, mainly comprising blue-collar households in social housing facing health and disability challenges. The classification also identifies more secure groups: 32.5% are classified as Mature and Financially Secure (primarily rural neighbourhoods with property assets), 18.7% as Suburban Financial Balancers (family households with multiple cars and shared ownership), and 9.3% as Emerging Financial Climbers (young professionals and students in expensive city centre locations). External validation using household investment data from a national consumer lifestyle survey confirms the classification’s effectiveness in differentiating areas according to financial security levels. The research demonstrates significant spatial variations in financial precarity, revealing how economic vulnerability emerges from overlapping factors including unstable work arrangements, constrained housing options, low asset ownership, and heavy debt burdens. This mapping provides crucial evidence for policymakers to develop spatially targeted interventions, enabling local authorities to provide tailored debt advice, benefit support, and financial education in high-precarity neighbourhoods whilst optimising housing, transport, and employment initiatives to address concentrated vulnerability across different geographic contexts.
Key Findings
- 15.8% of British neighbourhoods classified as highly vulnerable families, concentrated in peripheral zones of major cities
- Financial precarity varies significantly between rural and urban areas, with distinct patterns in coastal and inland communities
- The classification successfully differentiates areas by financial security levels, validated through independent household investment data
- Five distinct supergroups identified ranging from emerging financial climbers to highly vulnerable families across Great Britain
- Spatial targeting enables more effective policy interventions for debt advice, benefit support and financial education programmes
Citation
@article{ye2026thriving,
author = {Zi Ye; Alex Singleton},
title = {Thriving or surviving: Understanding the geography of financial precarity in Great Britain},
journal = {Computers, Environment and Urban Systems},
year = {2026},
volume = {125},
pages = {102399},
doi = {10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2026.102399}
}