Tracking spatio-temporal energy vulnerability: A composite indicator for England and Wales
Cameron Ward; Alexander Singleton; Caitlin Robinson; Francisco Rowe (2025). Regional Studies, Regional Science, 12(1), 319-337. DOI: 10.1080/21681376.2025.2472069
Abstract
Energy vulnerability concerns a household that is unable to access a socially and materially necessitated level of energy service. The government’s fuel poverty metric which concerns fuel affordability and energy efficiency does not capture the broader range of factors that drive energy vulnerability within households. Research has addressed this gap by creating spatial composite indicators using a greater array of known drivers. However, the studies that observe the temporality of energy vulnerability are in short supply. This prevents the monitoring of progress and the identification of areas with entrenched energy vulnerability. A temporal consideration is critical as the associated household physical and mental health implications from energy vulnerability are known to compound over time. This study addresses the gap by constructing the first spatial energy vulnerability composite indicator for England and Wales that is temporally comparable. Utilising dwelling and socio-economic measures, we calculate energy vulnerability risk in small areas for both 2011 and 2021. The findings reveal substantial geographic variation in energy vulnerability, with a total of 5,530 small areas identified to be in entrenched energy vulnerability across the analysis period. We strongly advocate for targeted policies to be situated within both areas of continued and increasing energy vulnerability to raise living standards.
Extended Summary
This research examines how energy vulnerability has changed across England and Wales between 2011 and 2021 by creating the first comprehensive spatio-temporal composite indicator to track these patterns over time. Energy vulnerability occurs when households cannot access adequate domestic energy services, affecting millions of people who face difficult choices between heating and eating. Current government fuel poverty metrics focus primarily on energy efficiency and affordability but fail to capture the multidimensional nature of energy vulnerability, which encompasses broader socio-economic and dwelling-related factors that prevent households from achieving necessary energy services. The study develops a composite indicator using eight variables across two domains: socio-economic factors (including proportion of those in bad health, lone parents, income spent on energy bills, and those over 65) and dwelling characteristics (proportion of overcrowded dwellings, properties built before 1945, homes without central heating, and privately rented accommodation). This methodology enables tracking of energy vulnerability across 34,633 lower super output areas (LSOAs), representing small neighbourhoods averaging 1,500 individuals. The research reveals substantial geographic variation in energy vulnerability patterns, with urban areas showing higher concentrations of vulnerability compared to rural locations. This finding challenges conventional assumptions that rural areas face the greatest energy challenges. The analysis identifies 5,530 LSOAs (15.97% of the total) that experienced persistent high energy vulnerability across both time periods, affecting approximately ten million people, including 3.75 million particularly vulnerable individuals aged under 18 or over 65. These persistently vulnerable areas are concentrated around major urban centres, southwest England, and large parts of Wales. Regional analysis shows the North West, London, Yorkshire and The Humber, West Midlands, and Wales housing the largest proportions of continually vulnerable areas. The study finds that whilst government metrics suggest fuel poverty has decreased, energy vulnerability has remained relatively stable, with some areas experiencing worsening conditions. The greatest differences between vulnerable and non-vulnerable areas relate to dwelling characteristics, particularly overcrowding, pre-war housing stock, lack of central heating, and private rental accommodation. The research demonstrates the compounding health implications for households experiencing prolonged energy vulnerability, including increased risks of asthma in children due to damp conditions and mental health impacts from financial stress. These findings have significant policy implications, highlighting the need for targeted interventions in persistently vulnerable areas rather than broad-brush approaches. The study advocates for area-based targeting of retrofit programmes and energy efficiency measures, particularly focusing on improving dwelling conditions in urban areas with entrenched vulnerability. This temporal perspective enables identification of areas requiring immediate intervention and provides a framework for monitoring progress in addressing energy inequality across England and Wales.
Key Findings
- The study identifies 5,530 small areas (15.97% of England and Wales) experiencing persistent energy vulnerability between 2011-2021, affecting ten million people.
- Urban areas show higher concentrations of energy vulnerability than rural locations, challenging conventional assumptions about geographic energy poverty patterns.
- Dwelling characteristics, particularly overcrowding and pre-war housing without central heating, drive vulnerability more than socio-economic factors alone.
- Energy vulnerability has remained relatively stable despite government claims of reduced fuel poverty, highlighting inadequacies in current measurement approaches.
- Vulnerable areas house 3.75 million people aged under 18 or over 65, who face heightened risks of compounding health impacts.
Citation
@article{ward2025tracking,
author = {Cameron Ward; Alexander Singleton; Caitlin Robinson; Francisco Rowe},
title = {Tracking spatio-temporal energy vulnerability: A composite indicator for England and Wales},
journal = {Regional Studies, Regional Science},
year = {2025},
volume = {12(1)},
pages = {319-337},
doi = {10.1080/21681376.2025.2472069}
}