Unraveling the Brexit–COVID-19 nexus: assessing the decline of EU student applications into UK universities
Ruth Neville; Francisco Rowe; Alex Singleton (2024). Data & Policy, 6. DOI: 10.1017/dap.2024.42
Abstract
While the number of international students attending UK universities has been increasing in recent years, the 2021/22 and 2022/23 academic years saw a decline in applications from EU-domiciled students. However, the extent and varying impact of this decline remain to be estimated and disentangled from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using difference-in-differences (DID) in a hierarchical regression framework and Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS) data, we aim to quantify the decline in the number of student applications post-Brexit. We find evidence of an overall decline of 65% in the 2021 academic year in successful applications from EU students as a result of Brexit. This decline is more pronounced for non-Russell Group institutions, as well as for Health and Life Sciences and Arts and Languages. Furthermore, we explore the spatial heterogeneity of the impact of Brexit across EU countries of origin, observing the greatest effects for Poland and Germany, though this varies depending on institution type and subject. We also show that higher rates of COVID-19 stringency in the country of origin led to greater applications for UK higher education institutions. Our results are important for government and institutional policymakers seeking to understand where losses occur and how international students respond to external shocks and policy changes. Our study quantifies the distinct impacts of Brexit and COVID-19 and offers valuable insights to guide strategic interventions to sustain the UK’s attractiveness as a destination for international students.
Extended Summary
This research examines how Brexit affected EU student applications to UK universities whilst accounting for the simultaneous impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a difference-in-differences statistical approach combined with multilevel modelling, the study analysed UCAS (Universities and Colleges Admissions Service) data spanning from 2012 to 2022, comparing EU student applications before and after Brexit’s implementation in 2021, whilst using non-EU students as a control group. The research incorporated COVID-19 stringency measures from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker alongside other factors known to influence international student mobility, such as GDP per capita, unemployment rates, and institutional reputation. The findings reveal a dramatic 65% decline in successful EU student applications to UK universities in 2021, with an even steeper 75% reduction in 2022. This decline represents a substantial shift in international student flows, particularly given that EU students previously comprised a significant portion of the UK’s international student body, contributing approximately £4.6 billion to the economy in 2018/19. The impact was not uniform across the higher education sector. Non-Russell Group institutions experienced more severe declines (80%) compared to prestigious Russell Group universities (60%). Subject areas also showed varying vulnerability, with Health and Life Sciences and Arts and Languages facing particularly steep reductions, whilst all subject areas experienced systematic declines. Geographically, the effects varied significantly across EU countries. Poland and Germany, previously major sources of UK-bound students, experienced the largest absolute declines, though countries like France, Spain, Portugal, and Italy showed greater resilience. Interestingly, the study found that higher COVID-19 stringency measures in students’ home countries actually led to increased applications to UK universities, suggesting students sought opportunities to escape restrictive environments. However, this pandemic effect was minimal compared to Brexit’s overwhelming impact. The research demonstrates that whilst applications from non-EU students continued growing throughout the pandemic and Brexit period, EU student flows collapsed once fee parity ended and visa requirements were introduced. These findings have crucial implications for UK higher education policy and institutional strategy. The research quantifies the economic and demographic consequences of Brexit for universities, particularly affecting institutional diversity and the student experience. For policymakers, the results highlight the need for targeted interventions to maintain the UK’s competitiveness in international education markets, whether through fee adjustments, enhanced support services, or improved post-graduation work opportunities. The study also provides valuable insights into how international students respond to external policy shocks, informing future planning for the sector.
Key Findings
- Brexit caused a 65% decline in successful EU student applications to UK universities in 2021, rising to 75% in 2022.
- Non-Russell Group institutions suffered more severely than prestigious universities, experiencing an 80% decline compared to 60% for Russell Group institutions.
- Poland and Germany experienced the largest absolute declines in student numbers, though effects varied significantly across EU countries.
- Higher COVID-19 restrictions in home countries actually increased applications to UK universities, but this effect was minimal compared to Brexit’s impact.
- All subject areas experienced systematic declines, with Health and Life Sciences and Arts and Languages particularly affected by the policy changes.
Citation
@article{neville2024unraveling,
author = {Ruth Neville; Francisco Rowe; Alex Singleton},
title = {Unraveling the Brexit–COVID-19 nexus: assessing the decline of EU student applications into UK universities},
journal = {Data \& Policy},
year = {2024},
volume = {6},
doi = {10.1017/dap.2024.42}
}