A GIS approach to modelling CO2emissions associated with the pupil-school commute
Alex Singleton (2014). International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 28(2), 256-273. DOI: 10.1080/13658816.2013.832765
Abstract
Concerns have been raised in numerous countries over declining rates of active transport to school. In a UK context, the pupil-school commute is estimated to contribute around 658 kilotonnes of CO2 per year; however, tackling this issue effectively requires an improved understanding of how emissions can be modelled and mapped over a variety of scales. This paper implements a new estimation technique for the modelling of CO2 emissions linked with the school commute that integrates both transport network-level routing and geographically disaggregate vehicle emissions data. The model is then applied to a national cohort of pupils in England. Areas demonstrating the highest emissions were typically more rural and/or comprising more affluent resident populations. Emissions were also shown to increase with school year, with larger step changes between educational stages reflecting the different geography of school locations. Furthermore, where secondary school entry policies were selective or based on a religious domination, average emissions were typically higher than in non-selective schools.
Extended Summary
This research develops a comprehensive geographic information system (GIS) model to quantify CO2 emissions from pupil-school journeys across England, addressing concerns about declining active transport and rising emissions from school commutes. The study utilises a national dataset of over 7 million pupil records from the Department for Education’s Spring 2011 census, combined with transport network routing data and geographically disaggregated vehicle emissions information from the Driver Vehicle Licensing Agency (DVLA). The methodology represents a significant advancement over previous approaches by incorporating actual road and rail network distances rather than straight-line measurements, and by using location-specific vehicle emission characteristics instead of national averages. The model calculates individual CO2 emissions for each pupil journey by multiplying network-based travel distances by appropriate emissions factors, adjusted for transport mode and local vehicle characteristics. Key findings reveal substantial geographical variations in school transport emissions across England. Rural areas and affluent neighbourhoods consistently demonstrate higher per-pupil emissions, reflecting longer commuting distances and greater reliance on private vehicle transport. The research identifies clear patterns related to school choice policies, with pupils attending selective schools or those with religious admission criteria travelling significantly further distances—selective school pupils averaging 7.7 kilometres compared to 3.8 kilometres for comprehensive schools. This corresponds to much higher emissions and dramatically reduced active transport rates (19.5% for selective versus 47.6% for comprehensive schools). The study also documents how emissions increase progressively through educational stages, with substantial jumps occurring during transitions from primary to secondary school and into post-compulsory education, reflecting the different geographical distribution of school types. Using geodemographic analysis, the research demonstrates that pupils from more affluent areas consistently produce higher emissions per journey, whilst those from urban, ethnically diverse, and economically disadvantaged neighbourhoods show lower emission levels and higher rates of walking or cycling to school. The model’s validation against official UK estimates confirms its accuracy, calculating 618,602 tonnes of CO2 annually for England compared to the official UK-wide estimate of 658,000 tonnes. Comparison with simplified models using straight-line distances and national average emissions reveals systematic underestimation in urban areas and overestimation in rural regions when geographical context is ignored. These findings have significant policy implications for sustainable transport and education planning. The research supports arguments for neighbourhood schooling policies that prioritise proximity in admissions criteria, potentially reducing emissions whilst increasing active transport. The methodology provides policymakers with tools to identify high-emission areas and evaluate the environmental impacts of school choice policies, contributing to broader efforts toward sustainable transport and carbon reduction in the education sector.
Key Findings
- Rural and affluent areas consistently show higher per-pupil school transport emissions due to longer distances and increased car dependency.
- Selective schools generate average emissions of 1,529.6g CO2 per journey compared to 629.0g for comprehensive schools, with correspondingly lower active transport rates.
- The geographically sensitive model reveals systematic errors in simplified approaches that underestimate urban emissions and overestimate rural emissions.
- School transport emissions increase progressively through educational stages, with substantial jumps during transitions reflecting different geographical distributions of school types.
- Pupils from more affluent geodemographic areas demonstrate consistently higher emissions per commute alongside reduced walking and cycling rates to school.
Citation
@article{singleton2014gis,
author = {Alex Singleton},
title = {A GIS approach to modelling CO<sub>2</sub>emissions associated with the pupil-school commute},
journal = {International Journal of Geographical Information Science},
year = {2014},
volume = {28(2)},
pages = {256-273},
doi = {10.1080/13658816.2013.832765}
}